After endless months of negotiations, saber rattling, and backpedaling, it seems that oil production and export may start back up again for the Sudans.[1] This comes after a long-awaited deal was struck last week between Juba and Khartoum setting up a demilitarized zone on the border.[2] South Sudanese President Salva Kiir has already pulled troops back, a move which prompted Sudanese living on the border to voice fears of militias acting with impunity in the army’s absence, but bodes well for the possibility of oil production actually restarting. Perhaps this time Juba and Khartoum will actually hold up both ends of their collective bargain.[3]
Oil production has been halted since last January when Juba stopped pumping Southern oil through the Northern pipeline for export due to exorbitant transit fees levied by Khartoum. The move has dealt severe damage to both economies, but the South in particular has suffered. Oil accounted for a staggering 98% of the South’s GDP. South Sudan is already making its way dealt a worse hand than that of many of its sub-Saharan African neighbors at their beginnings (Uganda, Kenya, DRC).[4] For a new African nation struggling to develop, particularly one as scarred by decades of civil war, gross injustice and underdevelopment, that sort of knock to an already weak economy can be hard to deal with or come back from.
Should Khartoum and Juba stay the course this time, allowing oil production to actually start back up (fingers crossed), the boost to the economy (and the potential boost in foreign investment) could be significant. In an ideal situation, money and investment would flow in, government salaries would be paid consistently, infrastructure, education, and roads bolstered and improved, and the upward curve on South Sudan’s development axis could begin.
As with so many natural resources in Africa, historically, oil has been as much or more of a curse to South Sudan as a blessing. Following the discovery of Southern oil reserves beginning in the latter half of the 20th century, oil activity and exploitation was consistently linked to human rights abuses including the destruction of villages obstructing oil exploration, Khartoum’s use of oil revenues to buy large amounts of military hardware and generally fund its war against the South (itself a seemingly bottomless case study in human rights abuses including, most notably, slave raiding and genocide), and the promotion and exploitation of radical Islam to cause Muslim militias to attack or drive out local populations in oil regions for “protection of national resources” and to ensure minimal interference with foreign oil workers and oil projects.[5]
Now that South Sudan has gained its independence, in theory oil revenues will (or can) be used for positive ends and the development of the country rather than its destruction. But even if the money starts pouring in, many fear the direction things are heading. Corruption is a very real danger to any form of revenue. Over the past years some $4 billion was discovered to have been “eaten” (read: stolen / embezzled) by current or former government officials – an amount of money that could have done worlds of good for South Sudan to say, build roads, or a pipeline through Kenya. Juba’s response however, has been less than forceful. A few months ago President Salva Kiir wrote personal letters to 75 officials (some current) known to have “eaten” funds, asking them to return the money. Response has been limited, and up to this point no further action has been taken.[6]
Widespread corruption without forceful government response cripples a nation. Additionally, the press, a major player in appropriate, democratic systems of checks and balances for fallible governments (and all governments are fallible) has met with significant trouble in Juba at the hands of government “security agents” intent on keeping dissent in check.
The restart of oil production and export could be South Sudan’s chance to get itself on course for stable and upward development. Or it could signal its downfall. Or negotiations could stall again, and we’ll be back to the waiting game.
Before independence many feared that all that held together the constantly bickering people groups of the South was a common enemy, and that independence would mean a descent into chaos and self-destructive infighting and corruption. These first years are crucial. Though Khartoum’s presence still looms heavy, the South must learn to unite over building (and checking) themselves into a unified and economically and politically responsible nation, rather than falling prey to tribalism or military build-up.
Where do you think South Sudan is headed?
[1] “The World this Week” in The Economist – 16 March 2013
[2] Aaron Maasho and Hereward Holland . “South Sudan says it can Resume Oil output within Three Weeks” in http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/12/us-sudan-south-oil-idUSBRE92B0QB20130312 – 12 Mar 2013
[3] “South Sudan pulls first troops from border with Sudan.” In http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/17/us-sudan-south-border-idUSBRE92G0B220130317 (17 March 2013)
[4] Jacob J. Akol. “The Danger of Misplaced “National Security Activists” in Gurtong Focus – December 2012 / January 2013. Issue 29.
[5]Jok Madut Jok. Sudan: Race Religion and Violence. (One World: Oxford, 2007) 186-188.
[6] “Corruption: A Major Threat to Development in 2013” by Francis Apiliga Lagu in Gurtong Focus. December 2012 / January 2013. Issue 29.
South Sudan - Shaughnessy 